Jordan’s Summer Box Office Predictions
Even though I had a feeling The Fault In Our Stars would be a hit, I didn’t expect it to crush Edge of Tomorrow when it came to last weekend’s box office report. Maybe this speaks more to Tom Cruise’s inability to get butts in the seats, but pulling in nearly $50 million while being a teen-centric romance is quite the feat.
A big bravo goes to The Fault In Our Stars.
Then I started to think about what could be some other big surprises (or flops) this summer. While nothing huge jumped out at me (and I am hardly close to being a box office prognosticator), I did have a little bit of fun hypothetically creating some box office predictions.
Alas, here is how I think the rest of June, July, and August will fare when it comes to box office pulls. Note: this includes movies that will be king of the hill for more than one week:
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Runner-Up: 22 Jump Street
Potential Dark Horse: The Fault In Our Stars (holdover)
I think 22 Jump Street has the potential to be better than How to Train Your Dragon 2, but an animated family film (which have been lacking so far this year) at the beginning of summer should defeat an R-rated comedy.
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (holdover)
Runner-Up: Think Like a Man Too
Potential Dark Horse: 22 Jump Street (holdover)
Think Like a Man was a very successful movie when it released. Does that mean Think Like a Man Too will have as successful of a weekend? I think it is going to need to in order to take out Dragon 2, but I wouldn’t count on it. Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys is another new release this weekend, but I don’t see that one doing nearly as well either.
Winner: Transformers: Age of Extinction
Runner-Up: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (holdover)
Potential Dark Horse: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (holdover)
There is a reason the June 20th weekend has a weaker crop of films. Michael Bay’s Transformers: Age of Extinction should easily cruise to a victory. Three weeks removed from its debut, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the only competition I can foresee, but it’s a dark horse at best.
Winner: Transformers: Age of Extinction (holdover)
Potential Dark Horse: Earth to Echo
I’m a little surprised Transformers didn’t wait until the Independence Day weekend to release. It seems like a perfect fit since the 4th of July weekend has been fruitful for many films. However, maybe they figured they’d have a good lead-in to it and ride the wave to a huge total. It’s a pretty safe bet up against the comedy Tammy and the sci-fi film Earth to Echo.
Winner: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Runner-Up: Transformers: Age of Extinction (holdover)
Potential Dark Horse: And So It Goes
One reason Transformers probably didn’t go with the 4th of July release date was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (to be honest: I’m not sure which movie set their date first). If I had to guess, Planet of the Apes will draw the second or third most dollars this summer (behind Transformers and probably Guardians of the Galaxy), making it an obvious choice two weeks out from Age of Extinction.
Winner: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (holdover)
Runner-Up: The Purge: Anarchy
Potential Dark Horse: Transformers: Age of Extinction (holdover)
For the sake of drama, I almost put The Purge: Anarchy as my predicted winner here. However, I’d be surprised if Planet of the Apes loses that much in ticket sales. The Purge will be a box office winner (like its predecessor), but I can’t imagine it dethroning Apes at this point.
Potential Dark Horse: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (holdover)
We finally get a strong head-to-head competition when Hercules and Lucy face-off on July 25th. “The Rock” is just too big of a star (and Hercules is too strong when it comes to source material) to keep out of the top spot. With that being said, it is hard to bet against Scarlett Johansson. We’ll see on this one.
Winner: Guardians of the Galaxy
Runner-Up: Get on Up
Potential Dark Horse: Hercules (holdover)
Up to this point, each winner has been predicted to repeat. While this is a little gutsy, part of it has to do with the way the schedule is set-up. There is no way (in my mind) Guardians of the Galaxy is a flop; therefore, I have to go with this Marvel film. I think Get on Up will be a hit, but I don’t think it’ll be nearly a big enough one.
Winner: Guardians of the Galaxy (holdover)
Runner-Up: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Potential Dark Horse: The Hundred-Foot Journey
I have to think Guardians of the Galaxy will outperform a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot (especially given how the project seems to be going). However, I wouldn’t be that surprised if TMNT squeaked out a victory. With that being said, TMNT could be the biggest bust of the summer (or year for that matter). It’s too early to tell.
Winner: The Expendables 3
Runner-Up: The Giver
Potential Dark Horse: Guardians of the Galaxy (holdover)
Let me be clear: I am rooting for The Giver here. The book is definitely worth a read and ripe with possibilities (for once, I’d be okay with scenes being added to a movie adaptation). I still think, however, that Expendables 3 will take the top prize because, well, it’s the Expendables.
Winner: Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Runner-Up: The Expendables 3 (holdover)
Potential Dark Horse: The Giver (holdover)
I was not a huge fan of Sin City when it released a few years back. However, I’m also not naive to think the starpower behind A Dame to Kill For will go unnoticed. Expect this one to win at least one week at the box office.
Winner: Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (holdover)
Runner-Up: The Expendables 3 (holdover)
Potential Dark Horse: The Loft
Labor Day weekend (unlike other three-day weekends) doesn’t usually bode well for new releases. Taking this into account mixed with the fact that there aren’t any huge releases make me believe a holdover will probably take it. It doesn’t make a lot of sense for another release to leapfrog A Dame to Kill For, so it wins by default.
What did I get right? What did I get wrong? Let me know below!
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